DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/13 10:56
Grain Futures Higher Midday Tuesday
Corn is 12 to 13 cents higher, soybeans is 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat is
5 to 10 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 85 points. The dollar index
is 0.17 lower. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are firmer
with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with
gold up $10.00.
Corn trade is 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action as
trade works to rebound from the soft start to the week as early field work
slows in coming days and demand remains stout nearby. Ethanol margins should
remain rang- bound with driving demand likely to remain near normal levels
short term, with corn values limiting upside along with sideways action in the
energy complex. Corn basis continues to hold firm throughout the belt.
Double-crop progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather for most, with early
growth seeming to be OK for now and the start of the dry season fast
approaching. Weekly crop progress showed planting progress at 4% versus 3% last
year and on the five-year average. On the May contract chart resistance is the
contract high at $5.95, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.78 3/4 now just
below the market, then the 20-day at $5.57 as support.
Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade working to regain
momentum after the poor start to the week, with oil attempting to lead the
recovery Tuesday morning after broad selling on reduced biodiesel demand
Monday. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 lower and oil is 1.70 to 1.80 cents higher.
South America is expected to continue harvest progress in Brazil with little
overall weather change short term and Argentina looking stable short term.
Planting progress was not reported yet with only the early birds going. The May
soybean chart has resistance the 20-day at $14.08, with support the lower
Bollinger Band at $13.77, which we have held.
Wheat trade is 5 to 7 cents higher with trade trying to regain momentum
after the soft start to the week, and with rain for the Plains and steady
conditions not adding fresh bullish inputs short term. The downtrend in the
dollar should help to limit downside while feeding wheat becomes more
attractive versus corn. Weather in the Plains has some cold in it as well, but
not enough to get the market excited right now with weekly crop progress
showing good to excellent and poor to very poor unchanged at 53% good to
excellent, and 17% poor to very poor, with 5% headed versus 7% on the five-year
average. KC has narrowed back to a 48-cent discount to Chicago with Minneapolis
15 cents above Chicago. KC May on the chart has support at the 20-day at $5.76
that we held Tuesday, with $6.00 the next level of resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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